Supply, Demand,
and Other Factors beyond your Control
Many pundits have
claimed that the dotcom bust was “unique in history.” While certain
aspects of the phenomenon may have been unique, this was not the first
time that employment in a technical field underwent a radical boom-to-bust
transition. Long before the dotcommers got their pink slips, workers
riding the tides of once promising fields like nuclear energy and defense
saw their fortunes rise and fall.
In the 1970s, nuclear
engineering was regarded as a promising field of study. The United States
had suffered through a crippling round of oil shortages throughout most of
the decade; and more than a few experts were declaring that the widespread
adoption of nuclear power was the logical—and inevitable—alternative to
fossil fuels. According to the experts of the time, nuclear power was
“poised to become the predominant source of energy” in the United States.
“Nuclear energy is poised to become the
predominant source of energy for Americans by the mid-1990s.” -Carter
administration spokesperson, 1977
Suppose that it’s
1977, and you’re an eighteen-year-old college freshman who is trying to
pick a major. You have been told that within a few years, there will be a
rush to build a nuclear power plant in every city in the United States.
Obviously, this would mean lots of jobs for nuclear engineers. You scored
within the top percentiles on the math section of the SAT, and in grade
school and high school you had been the kid who always seemed to take the
blue ribbon at the science fair. So, what would be your obvious choice of
major? Nuclear engineering, of course. After all, this path was
practically guaranteed to assure you steady, meaningful employment for
life.
Then on
March 28th, 1979, a partial meltdown occurred in Reactor 2 at the
Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in
Pennsylvania. The impact on the surrounding community was immediate. Over
2,000 personal injury claims would be filed in the months to follow.
Within the next decade and a half, additional lawsuits alleged high rates
of birth defects, cancer, and other illnesses as a direct result of
exposure to radiation from the meltdown. The Three Mile Island case would
drag on until 1996, and would become inextricably linked with the words
“nuclear power.”
As a result of the
negative publicity, American public opinion regarding nuclear power
dramatically shifted from optimistic to wary. During the 1980s, two
additional developments—lower oil prices and a far worse nuclear accident
at the Chernobyl plant in the Soviet Union—dampened almost all public
enthusiasm for building nuclear power plants.
“In the mid-1950s, nuclear
physicists confidently predicted that nuclear energy would usher in a
golden age. ..Ironically, however, this same industry is also teetering on
the verge of collapse….Never in modern history has a major technology,
with the full backing of industry and the government, come to such an
abrupt halt….” -Michio Kaku and Jennifer Trainer, Nuclear Power:
Both Sides (1982)
“Let's face it. We don't
want safe nuclear power plants. We want NO nuclear power plants.”-
Spokesperson for the Government Accountability Project (reported in The
American Spectator, 11/85)
In the 1980s, while
nuclear engineers were weathering a slump (from which the field has never
fully recovered), it was a great time to be an aerospace engineer. The
Reagan defense buildup of the 1980s was the largest in history, and there
were thousands of jobs to be found at defense contractors like Boeing and
Lockheed. (Many of the key weapons systems that were employed throughout
the 1990s in Iraq and Kosovo were developed during the defense spending
boom of the 1980s.) The demand for aerospace engineers in the defense
sector raised the salaries of aerospace engineers to historic highs; and
related engineering fields (such as electrical and mechanical engineering)
benefited as well.
Then in 1989, world
events dealt a blow to the defense industry. This time the catalyst was
not a nuclear accident--but the fall of the Soviet Union. Old enemies were
being toppled in rapid succession across Europe. Every month seemed to
bring another coup or collapse behind the Iron Curtain. The dreaded Berlin
Wall fell in 1989; and by 1992, Russia was no longer under the control of
the Communist Party.
While this was good
news for the world in general, it was not necessarily the best time to be
working for a defense contractor. Striking a chord of agreement that would
have been unthinkable just a few years early, both Democrats and
Republicans were now pushing for defense spending cuts. The term “peace
dividend” became a media buzzword. Defense contractors began to lay off
employees instead of hire them, and aerospace engineers were among the
thousands of displaced workers who were scrambling to find new jobs.
Petroleum / geological engineering?
Two additional engineering fields that have been hit by
global change are the petroleum and geological engineering fields. These
fields were considered hot in the 1970s; but oil companies have hired
fewer petroleum and geological engineers in recent years.
Copyright 2006 Beechmont Crest Publishing