MBAs have felt
the pain, too
You might be tempted
to conclude that the technical fields are especially prone to radical
employment cycles, because they are so intimately connected with specific
technologies. But computer programmers and engineers are not the only ones
who are vulnerable to the shifting sands of supply and demand. Supply and
demand hits everyone--even MBAs.
The MBA became a hot
degree in the early 1980s, when investment bankers and stock brokers hired
them in droves to sell bonds and orchestrate mergers. The demand for MBAs
soon spread beyond the financial industry. By the late 1980s, there was a
common belief that a manager with an MBA could step into any business and
run it effectively using universally applicable management and finance
skills.
The value of the MBA
degree peaked during the dotcom era, when management consulting projects
and IPOs flourished. However, this boom period for the MBA sowed the seeds
of the degree’s subsequent implosion. The high demand for MBAs prompted
more universities to start MBA programs. Many of these universities began
bending over backwards to make the pursuit of an MBA more convenient.
Launching a trend that others were soon to follow, Phoenix
University—a private sector player in the education field—even began making the
degree program available online.
As supply increases,
demand invariably decreases. The MBA was once limited to a small, fairly
elite group of people who had attended a small, fairly elite group of
schools. Now practically every university had an MBA program; and the
credential was appearing on a lot more of the resumes that landed on the
human resources manager’s desk.
Moreover, MBAs found
themselves in competition with less educated rivals. During the height of
the dotcom era, some consulting firms could not find MBA candidates to
fill analyst positions, so they began hiring professionals with four-year
degrees to do the same jobs. The consulting firms frequently found that a
non-MBA could be trained to do the MBA’s job with a bit of extra training.
These non-MBA candidates could also be hired at lower salaries.
Looking to the future: the target is still
moving
You have now crossed
off nuclear and aerospace engineering from your list of future career
choices, and you’ve decided to delay B-school until you see how the market
goes. Your next question would probably be: based on the current data,
what field is the next “sure thing?”
For most of the post-dotcom era, the answers were: education, retail, and
health care. Not so fast. An article in the
October 24, 2004 issue of BusinessWeek
(“Jobs: The Lull will Linger,” by Michael J. Mandel) throws some cold
water on the immediate prospects for these fields, as well. The education
boom of the 1990s, it seems, was buoyed by a growth in K-12 enrollments
which has slowed due to new population trends. The anticipated growth in
retail employment never materialized due to industry consolidations and
the efficiency gains realized by online retailers. Expansion is still
expected in the health care; but health care sector job growth rates have
yet to match the pace of the 1990s.
Copyright 2006 Beechmont Crest Publishing